Wab Kinew just dropped a hint that every driver in Manitoba has been waiting for since the start of 2025. During a heated exchange in the legislature this week, the Premier suggested that another provincial gas tax cut might be on the table. It wasn't a formal policy announcement or a signed-and-sealed budget promise, but in the world of politics, these "unprompted" musings usually mean the gears are turning behind the scenes.
If you've filled up your tank in Winnipeg lately, you know why this matters. Prices have been bouncing around $1.70 a litre, a far cry from the relief we felt in 2024. The Premier's "maybe we'll do it again" comment wasn't just a comeback to the Opposition; it was a signal to a province currently grappling with some of the highest inflation rates in the country.
The 14 cent question
Let's look at why Kinew is even talking about this. Back in 2024, the NDP government suspended the 14 cent per litre provincial fuel tax for a full year. Kinew recently called that move "the most important thing" any Manitoba government has ever done. That's a bold claim—one that had historians and the Progressive Conservatives pointing to things like women’s suffrage or the construction of the Red River Floodway as slightly more "important."
Hyperbole aside, the 2024 tax holiday worked for the average person's wallet. It made Manitoba's gas prices the lowest in Canada and helped pull our inflation rate down when the rest of the country was seeing red. When the tax was partially reinstated on January 1, 2025, bringing the rate to 12.5 cents per litre, the immediate jump at the pump felt like a punch to the gut for families already struggling with grocery bills.
Political theater or practical relief
Opposition Leader Obby Khan isn't buying the hype. He’s been quick to point out that Kinew has a habit of "musing" about big moves—like early elections—only to walk them back later. Khan’s take is that the Premier says things in the chamber without any real backup.
But here’s the reality: the NDP platform explicitly promised that tax relief would stick around "while inflation remains high." In 2025, Manitoba’s inflation was the highest among all provinces. If Kinew wants to keep his word to the "middle class and low-income folks" he frequently mentions, he’s running out of reasons to keep the tax where it is.
The numbers from the Canadian Taxpayers Federation (CTF) are hard to ignore. They estimate that a typical Manitoba family pays about $550 a year in provincial gas taxes if they're filling up a couple of vehicles every two weeks. For a family in Winnipeg earning $75,000, that’s a significant chunk of change, especially when you consider they’re already paying more provincial tax than similar families in Calgary or Regina.
What a second cut would actually look like
If the government moves forward, don't expect a permanent 14-cent wipeout immediately. They’ve already tinkered with the rate, moving it to 12.5 cents at the start of this year. A "cut" could mean dropping it back to zero for another six months, or it could mean a permanent reduction to a lower floor, like 5 or 7 cents.
The government’s recent budget already took some swings at affordability. They’ve announced plans to pull the 7% PST off groceries starting July 1, 2026. This would cover things like snacks and prepared meals that were previously taxed. However, that move is already facing pushback from restaurant owners and small retailers who say it creates an unfair playing field. Doubling down on a gas tax cut might be the "cleaner" political win Kinew needs to quiet the critics.
Why now
Politics is often about timing. Gas prices in Manitoba have jumped by more than 30 cents per litre since early March. When the price at the pump hits $1.70, people stop caring about long-term infrastructure projects and start caring about how they’re going to afford the drive to work.
Kinew knows that his 2024 tax holiday was his most popular move to date. Polling before the 2025 hike showed that 70% of Manitobans wanted the tax cut to be permanent. By floating the idea now, he's testing the waters. If the public outcry over gas prices continues to grow, "maybe we'll do it again" will likely turn into "we're doing it Monday."
Immediate steps for Manitoba drivers
Don't bank on a price drop tomorrow morning. Legislative changes take time, and Kinew hasn't committed to a date. For now, your best bet is to keep tracking the weekly price cycles.
- Watch the mid-week fluctuations: Prices in Winnipeg often dip slightly on Tuesdays or Wednesdays before jumping for the weekend.
- Hold the government to the "High Inflation" promise: The NDP's own platform ties this tax relief to inflation. If you're feeling the squeeze, reaching out to your MLA to remind them of that specific campaign promise is the most direct way to turn "maybe" into "yes."
- Budget for the $1.70 reality: Until the Premier moves past the "musing" stage, assume the 12.5-cent tax is here to stay.
The ball is in the government's court. They’ve seen that tax cuts are the fastest way to bring down the provincial inflation numbers. Now we wait to see if the Premier's words in question period were a genuine promise or just a convenient distraction.
